Mineral Resource, Commodity Price, and Cash Flow Uncertainty Musings

Geoffrey Chinn – Director Business Development, Mining Evaluations, IAMGOLD Corp.

Talk Abstract:

The mining value chain is fraught with uncertainty largely overlooked by industry today.  This talk walks through a series of uncertainty experiments with results presented as generalized musings. Topics include: geological, mineral resource estimate, commodity price, mining shape, mine schedule and discounted cash flow uncertainty.  The talk touches upon the probability of payback and its interaction with cost estimation uncertainty.  The purpose of this talk is to call out uncertainty by quantifying it through Sequential Gaussian Simulation and then showing how to leverage it to support better risk-informed decision making.

Speaker Bio:

Geoff got his first job in geology at the XRF lab at Saint Mary’s University where he completed his Bachelor’s degree, spending summers with the International Nickel Company.  Afterwards, he completed his Master’s degree at McGill University, spending summers and working afterwards for the Noranda Mining and Exploration Company.  During an industry downturn, he attended the College of Geographic Sciences and, after a year at the University of New Brunswick GIS lab, returned to Noranda to work on applied research in Geographic Expert Systems that played a role in the Camelback VMS discovery.  In 2007, he joined Linear Metals where he completed resource modelling and estimation work on skarn and molybdenum porphyry deposits. Subsequently, Geoff was hired by Scott Wilson at RPA as an associate where he worked on mineral resource estimates for gold, iron, nickel and uranium deposits, and one project involving assay chain-of-custody forensics. In 2009, he joined IAMGOLD, initially with Exploration then Business Development where he continues to support technical aspects of merger, acquisition and divesture activities.  In April 2009, he began compiling public disclosures around Coté Lake and produced an internal estimate in January 2011 that helped convince the company to enter into a non-disclosure agreement that ultimately resulted in the acquisition of Trelawney Mining.  Post-acquisition, he was the company’s lead on the project’s PEA and PFS. In 2019 he completed the Citation in Geostatistics at the University of Alberta. In 2020, he performed technical reviews that supported the acquisition of the Fayolle deposit from Monarch Gold.

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Thanks to Iamgold for sponsoring the networking reception following the talk!

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